查理·芒格在《每日日报》年会上的回答提问,查理芒格在Daily Journal股东大会上回答提问2021年2月24日

查理·芒格在《每日日报》年会上的回答提问,查理芒格在Daily Journal股东大会上回答提问2021年2月24日


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Legendary investor and polymath Charlie Munger, Berkshire Hathaway’s vice-chairman and Warren Buffett’s long-time business partner, headlined the Annual Meeting of Shareholders of the Daily Journal Corporation (DJCO) in Los Angeles on Wednesday.
伯克希尔哈撒韦公司副董事长、沃伦·巴菲特的长期商业伙伴、传奇投资人兼博学家查理·芒格(Charlie Munger)周三在洛杉矶举行的《每日日报》公司(DJCO)股东年会上担任主角。
For nearly two hours, Munger, chairman of the Daily Journal’s board, and Jerry Salzman, the company’s CEO, fielded shareholder questions about topics ranging from SPACs, Bitcoin, and bubbles to mental models, circles of competency, and moats.
在将近两个小时的时间里,《每日邮报》董事会主席芒格和公司首席执行官杰里•萨尔兹曼(Jerry Salzman)回答了股东提出的问题,涉及的话题从spac、比特币、泡沫到心智模型、能力圈和护城河。
The meeting kicked off with a shareholder question about the speculative frenzy in the broader market and the psychological implications of these frenzies. Munger said his best policy is to “ride them out.” He also noted that the crowd tends to buy stocks on credit when they see them going up, which he added is “a very dangerous way to invest.”
会议以一个股东问题拉开序幕:大盘的投机狂潮以及这些狂潮的心理暗示。芒格说,他最好的政策是“把它们赶出去”。他还指出,当人们看到股票上涨时,往往会赊购股票,他补充说,这是“一种非常危险的投资方式”
Responding to a question about the recent Reddit-fueled GameStop short-squeeze, Munger said it’s “the kind of thing that can happen when you get a whole lot of people who are using liquid stock markets to gamble the way they would in betting on racehorses.”
在回答有关最近Reddit推动的GameStop空头挤兑的问题时,芒格说,“当你让很多人利用流动性股票市场像赌赛马那样赌博时,就会发生这种情况。”
He added that the “frenzy is fed by people who are getting commissions and other revenues out of this new bunch of gamblers. And of course, when things get extreme, you have things like that short squeeze.”
他补充说,“狂热是由那些从这群新赌徒那里获得佣金和其他收入的人助长的。当然,当事情变得极端的时候,你也会有类似的短期挤压。”
As for SPACs, or special purpose acquisition companies, Munger said he thinks “the world would be better off without them,” adding that this “crazy speculation in enterprises not even found or picked out yet, is a sign of an irritating bubble.”
至于spac,即特殊目的收购公司,芒格说,他认为“没有它们,世界会更美好”,并补充说,这种“对企业的疯狂投机,甚至还没有发现或挑选出来,是一个令人恼火的泡沫迹象。”
“It’s just that the investment banking profession will sell s— as long as s— can be sold,” Munger said.
芒格说:“只是投资银行业会出售s——只要s——可以出售。”。
While Buffett is the more public and recognizable face of Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B, BRK-A), the iconic conglomerate was built on Munger’s blueprint of moving beyond so-called “cigar-butt” investing to “buying wonderful businesses at fair prices.”
虽然巴菲特是伯克希尔哈撒韦公司(Berkshire Hathaway,BRK-B,BRK-A)更为公众所熟知的面孔,但这家标志性的企业集团是建立在芒格的蓝图之上的,即从所谓的“雪茄屁股”投资转向“以公平的价格收购优秀企业”
Thousands of people usually make the pilgrimage to Omaha, Nebraska, to listen to Buffett and Munger during Berkshire Hathaway’s annual shareholder meeting. Still, Munger’s devoted followers— affectionately nicknamed by him as “groupies” — travel to Los Angeles for the Daily Journal annual meeting, where he holds court as chairman. Like most in-person events, this year’s meeting was held virtually.
在伯克希尔哈撒韦的年度股东大会上,成千上万的人通常前往内布拉斯加州的奥马哈,聆听巴菲特和芒格的讲话。尽管如此,芒格的忠实追随者们——被他亲切地昵称为“粉丝”——还是前往洛杉矶参加《每日邮报》年会,在那里他作为主席主持法庭。像大多数当面活动一样,今年的会议实际上是举行的。
Shareholders and value-investing enthusiasts also used to make the trip for Pasadena, Calif.-based Wesco Financial Corp. meeting before Berkshire acquired it.
在伯克希尔收购韦斯科金融公司(WescoFinancialCorp.)之前,股东和价值投资爱好者也曾前往加州帕萨迪纳参加会议。
While there were only 410 shareholders of record of Daily Journal’s common stock as of Dec. 15, according to its annual report, Munger attracts a sizable and engaged audience each year, including non-shareholders, to hear his wisdom and maxims about business, investing, and life. He also talks about the Daily Journal’s business.
据《每日日报》年报显示,截至12月15日,《每日日报》普通股记录在案的股东只有410人,但芒格每年都会吸引相当多的听众,包括非股东,聆听他关于商业、投资和生活的智慧和格言。他还谈到了日报的业务。
The company publishes 10 newspapers, including the Los Angeles Daily Journal and the San Francisco Daily Journal. Journal Technologies provides case management software for courts and other justice agencies. The software business accounted for 71% of its total operating revenues in fiscal 2020, up from 65% of total revenues in 2019, according to its annual report.
该公司出版10份报纸,包括《洛杉矶日报》和《旧金山日报》。Journal Technologies为法院和其他司法机构提供案件管理软件。根据其年报,2020财年,软件业务占其总营业收入的71%,高于2019年的65%。
In the shareholder letter, Munger noted that after many years as a “cash cow,” the newspaper business broke even, posting revenue of $14.695 million, down 14% from the prior year. Meanwhile, the “much more important” software business delivered $35.247 million in revenue, up 12% from the year-ago period.
芒格在股东信中指出,作为“摇钱树”多年后,报业收支平衡,实现收入1469.5万美元,比上年下降14%。与此同时,“更重要”的软件业务实现收入3524.7万美元,同比增长12%。
“I am very optimistic about the eventual success of the Company’s software business, but I expect this to take considerable time. In the Company’s newspaper business, my best hope is for it to turn a modest profit each year for many years to come,” Munger wrote.
“我对公司软件业务的最终成功非常乐观,但我预计这需要相当长的时间。芒格写道:“在公司的报纸业务中,我最大的希望是它在未来的许多年里每年都能实现微利。”。
As of Sept. 30, the Daily Journal Corporation held $28.96 million in cash and had a stock portfolio valued at $179.37 million. The portfolio includes investments in Bank of America (BAC), Wells Fargo (WFC), US Bancorp (USB), and Posco (PKX), according to the most recent 13-F securities filing. The portfolio of five companies includes one based in foreign currency.
截至9月30日,日刊公司持有2896万美元现金,股票投资组合价值17937万美元。根据最新的13-F证券文件,该投资组合包括对美国银行(BAC)、富国银行(WFC)、美国银行(USB)和浦项制铁(PKX)的投资。五家公司的投资组合包括一家外币公司。
“This trove of liquid wealth backs up the Company’s operating businesses,” Munger wrote. “The Company’s liquid wealth came from retained newspaper earnings, multiplied by seizing opportunities of a type no longer widely available.”
芒格写道:“这些流动性财富为公司的经营业务提供了支持。”该公司的流动性财富来自留存的报纸收益,再加上抓住不再广泛存在的机会。”
Munger added that the stock portfolio’s value reached $260 million on Dec. 31, up 45% from the end of September. He noted that “shareholders should not expect any significant appreciation above that level anytime soon.”
芒格补充说,该股票投资组合的价值在12月31日达到2.6亿美元,比9月底增长了45%。他指出,“股东们不应期望短期内出现高于这一水平的大幅升值。”
At the meeting, Munger was pressed on why the Daily Journal has not sold its shares in Wells Fargo while Berkshire Hathway has been cutting it. Munger noted that the prior leadership at Wells Fargo “were not consciously malevolent or thieving,” but they had “terrible judgment in having a culture of cross-selling.”
在会上,芒格被追问到为什么《每日邮报》没有出售富国银行的股票,而伯克希尔哈撒韦公司却一直在减持。芒格指出,富国银行(Wells Fargo)的前任领导层“并非有意识地恶意或偷盗”,但他们“对交叉销售文化的判断很糟糕”
“You can understand why Warren got disenchanted with Wells Fargo. I think I’m a little more lenient, I expect less out of bankers than he does,” Munger said.
“你可以理解为什么沃伦对富国银行不再抱有幻想。芒格说:“我认为我更宽容一点,我对银行家的期望比他低。”。
In response to a question about new technology disrupting the banking system, Munger said he does not think bitcoin is going to end up as the medium of exchange for the world.
在回答有关新技术扰乱银行体系的问题时,芒格说,他认为比特币最终不会成为世界的交换媒介。

“It’s too volatile…to serve well as a medium of exchange,” he added.
“它太不稳定了…不适合作为交换媒介,”他补充道。
In another shareholder question about the Daily Journal putting the cryptocurrency on its balance sheet, he responded: “We will not be following Tesla into bitcoin.”
在另一个关于《每日邮报》将加密货币列入其资产负债表的股东提问中,他回答说:“我们不会跟随特斯拉进入比特币领域。”
Munger, who also sits on the Costco (COST) board of directors, said the membership warehouse retailer “has one thing that Amazon (AMZN) does not.”
芒格也是好市多(Costco)董事会成员,他表示,这家会员制仓储零售商“有一件事是亚马逊(Amazon)没有的”
“People really trust Costco to be delivering enormous values. That is why Costco presents some danger to Amazon — because they’ve got a better reputation for providing value than practically anybody including Amazon,”Munger said.
“人们真的相信好市多能带来巨大的价值。这就是为什么好市多给亚马逊带来了一些危险,因为他们在提供价值方面的声誉比任何人都好,包括亚马逊。
During the meeting, Munger also revealed that he admires Lee Kuan Yew so much that he keeps a bust of Singapore’s first prime minister at his house.
在会见中,芒格还透露,他非常崇拜李光耀,以至于他把新加坡第一任总理的半身像放在家里。
“Lee Kuan Yew had the best record as a nation builder,” Munger explained. “He had probably the best grade record that ever existed in the history of the world. He took over a malarial swamp, with no army … And pretty soon, he turned that into this gloriously prosperous place.”
芒格解释说:“李光耀作为国家建设者有着最好的记录。”他可能有着世界历史上最好的成绩记录。他占领了一片疟疾沼泽地,没有军队……不久,他就把那里变成了这个辉煌繁荣的地方。”
Shares of Daily Journal Corporation closed at $404 on Dec. 31, a price “reached amid (1) much speculative frenzy and (2) much forced buying by index funds,” Munger wrote.
蒙格写道,12月31日,《每日日报》公司(Daily Journal Corporation)的股价收于404美元,这一价格“是在(1)大量投机性狂热和(2)指数基金被迫买入的情况下达到的”。

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